7. Estimating Average Profitability

NOTE ! A lotto, a system, and the forecasting abilities must be determined before using this window.

This window may help players to make a decision about whether to play on a particular date or not, depending on expected prizes. The average profitability is equal to (the sum of all prizes-the cost of all tickets)/the total number of tickets you played during the lottery time frame. This value shows how much you will win/loose (on each ticket) if you will be playing for a long time under the same conditions (prizes, forecasting abilities).

Example.

Tom, playing Canada 6 from 49 lottery using system 10_3_6, has an average person's forecasting abilities (=1) for all prizes. On February 2, 2002, he expects that prizes will be 10 million for the 6-numbers prize; 331,569 for the 5+bonus-numbers prize; 2,050 for the 5-numbers prize; 68.40 for 4-numbers prize; and 10 for 3-numbers prize. The average profitability for such games is positive (=0.12 per ticket). This means that if he regularly plays in such conditions, the average profit will be 0.12 per ticket. The value under the average profitability shows an estimate of the number of games to play to reach this profitability with the given confidence level. In this case with a confidence level of 95%, Tom must play about 199,489 times to reach this average profitability. Based on this information Tom decides to play this game.

On February 20, 2002 he expects that prizes will be 1 million for the 6-numbers prize, 61,744 for the 5+bonus numbers prize, 2,137 for the 5 numbers prize, 69.60 for the 4 numbers prize, and 10 for the 3 numbers prize. The average profitability for such games is negative(=-0.66 per ticket). Based on this information Tom decides not to play this game.

 

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